Proposição metodológica para repartição de benefícios de programas jurisdicionais de REDD+

Abstract

This dissertation proposes a methodology for the allocation of financial benefits derived from jurisdictional REDD+ programs, applied to the state of Tocantins in the year 2021. The proposal is based on the stock-flow approach, which combines the recognition of preserved native vegetation (stock) with the measurement of deforestation reduction (flow), using official data and consolidated normative references such as the REM Program of Mato Grosso and the CONAREDD+ guidelines. The methodology was structured through a multicriteria spatial analysis, employing geoprocessing techniques and computational language (Python) to cross-reference land tenure and environmental data. The criteria were applied with equal weights (50:50), ensuring balance between historical conservation efforts and recent emission reduction performance. Native vegetation data were obtained from MapBiomas (2021), while deforestation data were sourced from PRODES/INPE, for the reference (2011–2015) and crediting (2016–2020) periods. Results indicated a remaining native vegetation cover of approximately 19.2 million hectares, with private lands contributing nearly 48% of this total. Under the flow criterion, a mean reduction of around 148.7 thousand hectares of deforestation was observed. The quantification of avoided emissions, based on carbon maps from Brazil’s National Communications (2CN, 3CN, and 4CN), revealed reductions ranging between 114 and 116 million tCO₂eq, with methodological variations associated with updated classifications of vegetation physiognomies. The proposed methodology proved replicable and technically sound, offering an objective and adaptable framework to guide the equitable allocation of REDD+ benefits at the subnational level in Brazil.